Reading path: Coastal light, tides and conditions →
Questions to keep separate
| Question or feature | Explanation | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Astronomical prediction | Use the local tide map’s date, time, and height to plan when to observe. [4] | Predictions omit storm surge and El Niño contributions; waves and weather can exceed them. [3] |
| Fixed landmark | A stair, road edge, or seawall makes the water’s position easier to compare across photographs. [4] | A photograph alone cannot attribute water level to tide, surge, rainfall, or long-term sea-level change. [4] |
| Marin forecast notice | The January 2026 notice identified historical flood-prone locations and warned rainfall could amplify impacts. [2] | A forecast notice does not confirm flooding at each named location. [2] |
Read the prediction as a window, not a flood map
A king tide is a popular name for an exceptionally high tide, not a separate scientific tide type. The Sun and Moon’s gravitational pulls, their alignment around new and full moons, the Moon’s distance from Earth, and seasonal variation all contribute to high water. Predictions describe astronomical tides; weather can change what the shoreline experiences. [1]
Marin County issued a notice on January 28, 2026, forecasting a high-tide period from January 29 through February 2. It highlighted low-lying Bay shoreline, creek-adjacent areas, and historically flood-prone roads, including China Camp/North San Pedro Road, Lucky Drive, and Manzanita Park & Ride. The notice warned that rainfall could increase impacts on roads, parking, and travel. It is a forecast, not verification that every listed place flooded. [2]
The California King Tides Project selects dates with the highest predicted astronomical tides. Its predictions omit storm surge and El Niño contributions, and waves or weather can exceed the predicted tide. The project’s current calendar describes the 2026–27 season; those dates should not be confused with Marin’s January 2026 notice. [3]
Plan a repeatable observation
Start with the project’s location-specific tide map and record the predicted date, local high-tide time, and height for the place you can safely reach. A tide station or prediction for another part of the Bay may not describe your exact viewpoint. Treat the forecast as a planning aid, not a guarantee of water level or flooding at a particular road. [4]
Choose a public viewpoint with a fixed reference feature in frame: a stair, seawall, road edge, or building. Return to the same spot for a comparison at a different tide. Consistent framing helps show the water’s position relative to the landmark; it does not by itself identify why the water reached that level. [4]
For example, imagine photographing a seawall stair during a predicted high tide, then repeating the photograph at a lower tide from the same accessible spot. Record the date, local time, tide location or station, predicted high-tide time, and weather. The pair documents shoreline exposure and possible pathways toward roads. It does not measure long-term sea-level rise, and one image cannot separate astronomical tide from surge or other weather effects. [4]
Let safety and context set the limits
Check for emergency closures and respect them; a familiar path may be unsafe or unavailable during high water. Stay back from waves and slippery edges. A photograph is not worth entering a closed area or approaching water that could reach the viewpoint. [4]
High water can displace birds above the usual tide line. Give them space rather than approaching or flushing them to improve a picture. Also note that a high-water image can show a local condition without establishing that a listed site flooded throughout the forecast period. Pair images with place, time, tide prediction, and weather context before making comparisons. [4]
Sources & further reading
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